Assignment First


2008年的政府一揽子刺激方案肯定是2010年经济增长的一个负担,但2010年以后的支出是有限的。2013年下半年,政府提出了微观刺激政策,并给予企业税收优惠以改善经济增长(齐,2014)。但是,这一政策并没有像预期的那样支持增长。此外,中央政府还提出地方政府用债券发行筹集资金,用于基础设施项目的融资(Ollero et al,2014,p.47)。所以显而易见,中央政府正在通过税收和债券问题来限制中国经济的支出和筹集资金。

即使在全球危机之后,中国的增长也没有改善。中国的扩张性政策似乎并不正确。如果中国需要保持世界第二大经济体的地位,另一个刺激方案是必不可少的。虽然财政政策支持,但固定资产投资增速在2013年第四季度有所下降。 2013年,中国的贸易平衡通过出口(7.9%)和进口(7.3%)的增长而有所改善。然而,2013年外国直接投资流入量下降,2014年2月出口下降。因此,世界银行预计2014年将增长7.6% %(Ollero等,2014,第86页)。


中国采取了扩张性的财政政策来应对2008年的金融危机,从那时起,一直持续不变的改革。 2008年提出的四万亿元的一揽子刺激计划似乎有效地刺激了经济增长。中国控制通货膨胀和失业的企图是成功的。然而,经济衰退之后,货币政策收紧和政府支出下降放缓了经济增长。目前中国提出扩大税基,发行债券筹集资金,从而限制其支出。经济似乎没有从危机中复苏,但中国政府采取了积极的政策。政府强制执行改革是非常谨慎的。否则,将导致国内生产总值增长大幅下滑。


The government stimulus package in 2008 was certainly responsible for the improvement in economic growth in 2010, but the expenditure was limited after 2010. In the second half of 2013, the government proposed a ministimulus policy and gave tax breaks to business to improve economic growth (Qi, 2014). Still, the policy did not support growth as expected. In addition, the central government has also proposed the local government to raise funds by bond issues for financing their infrastructure projects (Ollero et al, 2014, p.47). So it is evident that the central government is capping its expenditures and raising funds from the Chinese economy through tax and bond issues.

Chinese growth has not improved even after the global crisis. China’s expansionary policy does not seem to be on the right path. Another stimulus package is essential if China needs to retain its position as the second largest economy in the world. The growth in fixed asset investments has lowered in the fourth quarter of 2013, though the fiscal policy has been supportive. China’s trade balance has improved through increases in exports (7.9%) and imports (7.3%) in 2013. However FDI inflows have decreased in 2013 and exports declined in February, 2014. So World Bank has projected a 7.6% growth in 2014 and 7.5% in 2015 (Ollero et al, 2014, p.86).

All this data again confirms that Chinese policies have not stimulated growth. The Chinese government is currently focusing on restructuring the economy. This slowdown is likely to change the demand from US to other developing economies and so China must be very careful while implementing the proposed restructuring to regain its foothold in the future.

China adopted the expansionary fiscal policy to fight the financial crisis in 2008 and since then, has continued the same but with a few reforms. The promotional stimulus package of four trillion Yuan proposed in 2008 seems to have efficiently helped to stimulate economic growth. China’s attempt to control inflation and unemployment were successful. However, tightening of the monetary policy and lowered government expenditure has slowed down growth after the recession. China has currently proposed to broaden the tax base and issue bonds to raise funds, thus limiting its expenditure. The economy seems to not have recovered from the crisis, but Chinese government has adopted aggressive policies. It is mandatory that the government takes extensive care in implementing its reforms. Alternatively, it will lead to drastic fall in GDP growth.