Assignment First

英文论文代写:ENSO对中国经济的影响

在江西,ENSO的强效应导致水稻产量不足,由于缺乏特定的补偿政策,国内大米价格的不稳定影响着江西低收入群体(Liu et al., 2013)。

江西是世界第三大水稻生产省,占中国水稻总产量的11%左右,对世界水稻产量的贡献居世界第二位。根据种植模式数据,江西约80%的面积用于水稻生产,全省主要种植“早稻”和“晚稻”两种水稻。Wu, Li & Zhou(2010)指出,江西大部分水稻生产依赖于稻田内的平稳水流。虽然全省中小河流和水体配置齐全,但在夏季,河流和其他水体的蓄水量往往很快干涸。因此,对高降水量的要求在省内可见一斑。在这一前景下,由于ENSO的强烈影响,江西省的水稻产量下降(Marlier et al., 2013)。

英文论文代写:ENSO对中国经济的影响

然而,厄尔尼诺现象对中国整体GDP的影响是一个有争议的话题。据《南华早报》报道,厄尔尼诺现象既造就了经济上的赢家,也造就了经济上的输家。在某种程度上,美国和中国是赢家。根据《南华早报》的数据,2015年中国GDP增长率在厄尔尼诺冲击后增加了0.57% (www.scmp.com, 2017)。此外,可以注意到,美国的厄尔尼诺波动通常带来足够的降雨量,增加了加州的农作物产量。由于中美贸易约占总贸易活动的19%,因此当美国受益于厄尔尼诺时,中国也间接受益于厄尔尼诺(Cobb et al., 2013)。

英文论文代写:ENSO对中国经济的影响

In Jiangxi, the strong effect of ENSO causes shortfall in the rice production and due to the absence of any particular compensation policy, instability in the domestic prices of rice affect the low income group of Jiangxi (Liu et al., 2013).
Jiangxi is the third largest rice producing province accounting for around 11% of the total rice production of China and accounting for the second largest contributor to the world rice production. As per the cropping pattern data, around 80% of the area of Jiangxi is used for rice production and majorly two types of rice are cropped in the province namely “early rice” and “late rice”. Wu, Li & Zhou (2010) stated that majority of the rice production of Jiangxi is depended on the smooth water flow within the rice fields. Although the province is well equipped with different small and medium sized rivers and water bodies, however, during the summer seasons, the water reserve of the river and the other water bodies tend to dry quickly. Thus, the requirement for high rainfall is seen within the province. In this prospect, the rice production in Jiangxi decreases since the strong effect of ENSO prevents the required amount of rainfall in the province (Marlier et al., 2013).

英文论文代写:ENSO对中国经济的影响

Nevertheless, the economic consequences of El Niño on the overall GDP rate of China are a debatable topic. As per the reports of the South China Morning Post, El Niño effects create both economic winners and losers. To some extent, the US and China have been the winners. As per the data of South China Morning Post, the GDP rate of China in 2015 had increased by 0.57% aftermath the El Nino shock (www.scmp.com, 2017). Further, it can be noted that the El Nino fluctuations in US generally bring sufficient amount of rainfall which increases the crop production in states of California. Since the US-China trade accounts for around 19% of the total trading activities, hence when US is benefitting from EL Nino, China is also benefitting indirectly from the El Nino (Cobb et al., 2013).